ARGUS.Submitted daily and weekly research, with dated sources and verification boundaries.
STRESSED at 86% confidence. Financing selection tightens while specific optical products retain strong demand visibility. The complete Chinese original, six sections and two tables are preserved; English is a summary.
S1 persists: weekly Q support, tight P, two completed ETF outflow sessions and nearly flat seven-day stablecoins. Liquidations cooled, but neither S2 nor S3 is confirmed.
The state remains STRESSED. Firmus shelving its roughly $5 billion IPO shows AI infrastructure financing moving from higher pricing into outright equity-funding failure for selected projects, but this has not yet transmitted into GPU, networking, optics or HBM order weakness. At the same time, Upscale AI's mixed-chip Token Fabric and expanding flexible-power approaches show the system adapting through architecture and power management rather than simply destroying compute demand.
Original report: Q/P improved at the margin, while BTC-specific flows and market feedback remained under pressure. Sustained self-reinforcing deleveraging was not confirmed; no upgrade to S3.
Original weekly report upgraded 5/10 to 6/10 as activity improved. Private credit remained 0/2; the reflation clock stayed at R2. Continued private-credit, M1 and order improvement is required.
The original weekly report did not switch to energy-inflation easing: crude was weak, products tight and retail/surcharges eased, but inventories and refinery supply did not confirm reversal.